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VERSION:2.0
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SUMMARY:Optimal Responses to Epidemics: Models to Support Good Decisions
DTSTART:20230112T090000
DTEND:20230112T100000
DTSTAMP:20260510T221630Z
UID:53d9a922b05249fb2a086749af0dbb3d226c5e5d6a7cbcf5981d7adb
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Dr. Isabelle Rao\nAbstract:\nPolicy makers make consequential 
 choices about how to allocate limited resources to improve population heal
 th. My research aims to find avenues to optimize the use of these resource
 s. The first part of my talk addresses the problem of how to optimally all
 ocate limited vaccines to control the spread of an infectious disease. Thi
 s problem is dynamic\, nonlinear and stochastic\, and is typically solved 
 numerically. By approximating the epidemic dynamics\, I am able to develop
  simple analytical conditions characterizing the optimal vaccine allocatio
 n for four different objectives. The approximated solution is an all-or-no
 thing allocation based on a prioritized list of population groups given by
  the analytical conditions. This provides a practical and intuitive tool f
 or decision makers as they allocate vaccines over time. I illustrate my m
 ethod with an example of COVID-19 vaccination\, calibrated to epidemic dat
 a from New York State. Numerical computations show that my method achieves
  near-optimal results over a wide range of scenarios. Although black-box m
 odels are prevalent in the literature\, this work shows that accuracy need
  not be sacrificed for interpretability. \n  \nIn the second part of th
 e talk\, I present a dynamic model to assess the effectiveness of interven
 tions for controlling the US opioid epidemic. I show that reductions in op
 ioid prescriptions are necessary but may lead to a short-term increase in 
 heroin overdose deaths\, and thus must be combined with scale up of treatm
 ent for addicted individuals -- but that even with immediate policy change
 s\, significant morbidity and mortality will still occur. This project inf
 ormed the work of the Stanford-Lancet Commission on the North American Opi
 oid Crisis\, and provides critically needed evidence-informed recommendati
 ons for reducing opioid-related morbidity and mortality in the US. \n\nBi
 o:\nIsabelle Rao is a PhD candidate in the department of Management Scienc
 e and Engineering at Stanford University. Her research integrates tools f
 rom operations research\, epidemiology\, computer science and health econo
 mics to inform critical decisions in public policy and personalized medic
 ine. The goal is to develop interpretable models that can provide action
 able insights for operational and policy decisions in healthcare. Recently
 \, her work has focused on the areas of COVID-19\, opioid abuse and epidem
 ic control. Her work is supported by a Stanford Interdisciplinary Graduate
  Fellowship.  \n\n\n 
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STATUS:CONFIRMED
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