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PRODID:-//Memento EPFL//
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SUMMARY:A tale of two Lucys
DTSTART:20240308T151500
DTEND:20240308T170000
DTSTAMP:20260510T164809Z
UID:ba3f994690f6f9534765ea884c1199789ed3b4874b40ec32d47578bf
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Richard Gill\, Leiden University       \n*Lucia de Berk*
 \, a Dutch nurse\, was arrested in 2001\, and tried and convicted of seria
 l murder of patients in her care. At a lower court the only hard evidence 
 against her was the result of a probability calculation: the chance that s
 he was present at so many suspicious deaths and collapses in the hospitals
  where she had worked was 1 in 342 million. During appeal proceedings at a
  higher court\, the prosecution shifted gears and gave the impression that
  there was now hard evidence that she had killed one baby. Having establis
 hed that she was a killer and a liar (she claimed innocence) it was not di
 fficult to pin another 9 deaths and collapses on her. No statistics were n
 eeded any more. In 2005 the conviction was confirmed by the supreme court.
  But at the same time\, some whistleblowers started getting attention from
  the media. A long fight for the hearts and minds of the public\, and a lo
 ng fight to have the case reopened (without any new evidence - only new sc
 ientific interpretation of existing evidence) began and ended in 2010 with
  Lucia’s complete exoneration. A number of statisticians played a big ro
 le in that fight. The idea that the conviction was purely based on objecti
 ve scientific evidence was actually an illusion. This needed to be explain
 ed to journalists and to the public. And the judiciary needed to be convin
 ced that something had to be done about it.\n \n*Lucy Letby*\, an English
  nurse\, was arrested in 2020 for murder of a large number of babies at a 
 hospital in Chester\, UK\, in Jan 2015-June 2016. Her trial started in 202
 2 and took 10 months. She was convicted and given a whole life sentence in
  2023.\n \nIn my opinion\, the similarities between the two cases are hor
 rific. Again there is statistical evidence: a cluster of unexplained bad e
 vents\, and Lucy was there every time\; there is apparently irrefutable sc
 ientific evidence for two babies\; and just like with Lucia de Berk\, ther
 e are some weird personal and private writings which can be construed as a
  confession.  For many reasons\, the chances of a fair retrial for Lucy L
 etby are very thin indeed\, but I am convinced she is innocent and that he
 r trial was grossly unfair. I will try to convince you\, too.\n \nI predi
 ct that it will take between 6 and 12 years before she is exonerated.\n \
 nReference:\nhttps://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/se
 ction-group-reports/rss-publishes-report-on-dealing-with-uncertainty-i/\n
  
LOCATION:MA A1 12 https://plan.epfl.ch/?room==MA%20A1%2012
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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