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PRODID:-//Memento EPFL//
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SUMMARY:Flexibility in Engineering Design
DTSTART:20140307T121500
DTEND:20140307T131500
DTSTAMP:20260407T183709Z
UID:21787f1aeb79574b21013ac451d3261fc9224d34788d85ae435d3364
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Prof. Richard de Neufville (MIT)\nFlexibility in Design is an 
 effective way to manage uncertainty. It enables system managers to adapt t
 o evolving environments\, to avoid bad situations and take advantage of em
 erging good opportunities.\nThe approach is strategic. It views systems ma
 nagement as a dynamic process in which designers necessarily add or change
  capacities and capabilities over time. As in chess\, the key to success l
 ies in positioning the system to provide valuable options. Flexibility in 
 design is most desirable when the future is most uncertain\, exactly when 
 options are most valuable.\nFlexibility in Design contrasts with Robust de
 sign. Rather than minimize the variation of future system performance\, Fl
 exibility in Design redistributes the variation in performance\, reducing 
 the downside possibilities while maximizing upside potential.\nThe present
 ation outlines the process of achieving Flexible Designs\, and demonstrate
 s its operation and value through examples. The analysis maximizes overall
  expected system value. It starts with explicit recognition of underlying 
 uncertainties – in sharp contrast to conventional systems design based o
 n fixed system requirements.  The process explores the distribution of po
 ssible outcomes associated with alternative design concepts\, generally by
  Monte Carlo simulations.\nExample applications indicate that Flexibility 
 in Design routinely leads to 10 to 30% increases in expected value. The in
 tuition is that it guards against the highest risks (a win)\, enables taki
 ng advantage of new opportunities (more win)\, while frequently reducing i
 mmediate capital costs (by deferring decisions on capacity and function).
   The net effect in general is: more wins at lower cost!\nBio: Dr. Richar
 d de Neufville is Professor of Engineering Systems and of Civil and Enviro
 nmental Engineering at MIT. He specializes in Systems Analysis and Design 
 of major infrastructure. His work now focuses on flexibility in technologi
 cal systems. This is logically equivalent to using “real options”\, bu
 t in engineering the analysis differs substantially from that of financial
  options. This approach implies a fundamental shift in engineering design\
 , from a focus on fixed specifications\, to a concern with system performa
 nce under the range of possible risks and opportunities. He has worked wid
 ely – geographically and substantively -- on many projects\, including h
 ydropower\, oil platforms\, copper mines\, and his substantive specialty\,
  airports. He is author of Flexibility in Engineering Design (MIT Press\, 
 2011)\, Airport Systems Planning\, Design and Management\, (McGraw-Hill\, 
 2nd edition\, 2013)\; Applied Systems Analysis (McGraw-Hill) and other tex
 ts. Numerous prizes have recognized his work\, including the Sizer Award f
 or the Most Significant Contribution to MIT Education for having founded a
 nd led the MIT Technology and Policy Program. He has an MIT PhD and a Delf
 t Dr.Hc. Born in the United States\, he enjoyed 7 years of school in Switz
 erland. Prof. de Neufville is a CRAG (EPFL Center on Risk Analysis and Gov
 ernance) visiting professor at the Laboratory of Hydraulic Construction.
LOCATION:GC B330
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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