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SUMMARY:Translation of Ensemble Weather Forecasts into Probabilistic Aviat
 ion Impact Predictions
DTSTART:20110418T161500
DTSTAMP:20260928T203100Z
UID:19eb2e6eaa8a849bd973745a6ce1f0f79a67ebb028dc8c956e122e81
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Prof. Matthias STEINER\, National Center for Atmospheric Resea
 rch (NCAR)\, Boulder University (USA)\nWeather conditions can seriously im
 pact aircraft operations which places great importance on how weather-rela
 ted information is collected managed disseminated  and utilized in the air
  traffic management decision-making process. The primary role of weather i
 nformation is to provide guidance where and when aircraft may fly safely. 
 Thus weather forecasts have to be translated into information that is dire
 ctly relevant to the aviation users and service providers. The uncertainty
  of weather forecasts has to be accounted for as well in the risk assessme
 nt and decision-making process.\n\nToday's trend in probabilistic weather 
 forecasting is toward utilizing ensemble prediction systems. In the Next G
 eneration Air Transportation System (NextGen) ensemble-based weather forec
 asting will be a common practice.  Therefore this presentation explores a 
 novel approach of using high-resolution ensemble-based numerical weather p
 rediction model data for weather-related  probabilistic aviation impact fo
 recasting. The concept represents a paradigm shift from "creating ensemble
 s of weather information" (e.g. maps of predicted weather hazard intensity
 ) to "developing ensembles of aviation-relevant information" (maps of pote
 ntial throughput as measured by the available flow capacity ratio) which e
 ntails a translation of weather forecasts into predictions of reduced airs
 pace capacity. The proof-of-concept is exemplified by focusing on convecti
 ve storms\; however in principal the approach may be applicable to other a
 viation hazards  like turbulence icing or ceiling and visibility. The conc
 ept is most pertinent to strategic en route traffic flow management but it
  also applies to terminal area applications. A probabilistic approach is a
 ppropriate for strategic planning horizons for which deterministic weather
  forecasts are significantly less accurate and an ensemble of forecasts ma
 y provide guidance about the weather (and impact) uncertainty.
LOCATION:GR B3 30
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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