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SUMMARY:Overview and advances of statistical concepts used within a climat
 e Detection and Attribution framework (joint work with Alexis Hannart and 
 Aurelien Ribes)
DTSTART:20150331T161500
DTEND:20150331T171500
DTSTAMP:20260924T071721Z
UID:196e13fd84d5b490758130a65ad5e642dd36192f1d41780ed52f7709
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Dr Philippe Naveau\, LSCE (UMR-8212)\, CNRS\, Université de V
 ersailles (F)\nAbstract:\nIn climatology\, the field of statistics has bec
 ome one of the mathematical foundations in  Detection and Attribution (D&
 A) studies (Detection’ is the process of demonstrating that climate has 
 changed in some defined statistical sense\, without providing a reason for
  that change and ‘Attribution’  is the process of establishing the mo
 st likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confid
 ence\, see the IPCC definition).\nTo assess uncertainties in the estimated
  magnitude of   climate change\, the classical paradigm  is to infer 
    regression coefficients when   observed climate change    is reg
 arded as a linear combination of externally forced signals and residual  
 internal climate variability.   In contrast to standard regression model
 s\, the regressor inputs (the climate models) are not considered perfect\,
  but tainted by an modelling error. Hence\, we are in the case of  an Err
 or-In-Variable (EIV) model of large dimensions with non-proportional error
  matrices. In this talk\, we propose and study a Bayesian framework   to
  handle a variety of EIV situations. \nIn addition\, we will discuss the 
 question of causality\, a key aspect mathematical aspect in attribution st
 udies.\nIf time allows\, we will also speak about the question of rare eve
 nts and the often-used idea of Fraction of Attributable Risk.Short biograp
 hy:\nAfter obtaining his PhD in Statistics at Colorado State University in
  1998\, Dr. Philippe Naveau was a visiting Scientist  at National Center 
 for Atmopsheric Research in Boulder\, Colorado for three years. Then\, he 
 was an assistant professor in the Applied Math Dept of Colorado University
  (2002-2004). Since 2004\, he is a research scientist at the French Nation
 al Research Center (CNRS) and his research work has focused on environment
 al statistics\, especially in analyzing extremes events.
LOCATION:GR A3 31 http://plan.epfl.ch/?room=GR%20A3%2031
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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