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SUMMARY:Inertia and shock effects in mode choice panel data
DTSTART:20100201T110000
DTSTAMP:20260510T062911Z
UID:643ad25d628b119f148125304007cf66ef9dfcb0a575d8ffb58bc129
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Mariá Francisca Yanñez\nThe mode choice process\, especially
  in the case of commuter trips\, reflects the strong ten-dency people have
  to simplify the assessment of their options when confronted with succes-s
 ive well-known decisions. Thus\, it is common to repeat the “habitual”
  choice over time in-volving a potentially important inertia element. Howe
 ver\, while inertia effects increase the probability of maintaining the sa
 me choice in a stable situation\, in a changing environment i.e. one that 
 is disrupted by a radical or significant policy intervention\, user behavi
 our may be affected by a specific response to abrupt changes. Shock effect
 s of this kind could increase the probability of individuals leaving their
  habitual choices. Temporal effects have been com-monly ignored in practic
 al studies\, as most demand models to date have been based on cross-sectio
 nal data. A few recent studies dealing with panel data have managed to inc
 orporate iner-tia effects\, but there are no studies that have included bo
 th inertia and shock effects. To ad-dress this\, I started by building a d
 ata panel around the introduction of a new and radical pol-icy for the con
 urbation of Santiago de Chile. The final aim was to develop mode choice mo
 d-els incorporating the effects of three main forces involved in the choic
 e process: (1) the rela-tive values of the modal attributes\, (2) the iner
 tia effect\, and (3) the shock resulting from and abrupt policy interventi
 on. This research includes the formulation of an inertia-shock model and i
 ts application to each of simulated and real data. The results obtained pr
 ovide empirical evidence that inertia-and-shock models are superior to the
  traditional approach (i.e. ignoring the consequences of not including tem
 poral effects) both in terms of explaining a real phe-nomenon (estimation)
 \, and in terms of predictive capability. So\, these findings reinforce th
 e belief that real systems should be modelled with data which allows captu
 ring the effect of new policies and habit/inertia effects in individuals
 ’ choice processes. Apart from the research backbone summarised above\, 
 a related investigation has been conducted. The last wave of the Santiago 
 Panel included a latent variable section that allowed estimating hybrid ch
 oice mod-els in a panel data context\, and to test empirically the perform
 ance of the preferred estimation methods for this type of models.
LOCATION:GC B3 424
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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