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SUMMARY:A statistician’s viewpoint on weather\, climate\, and climate si
 mulations
DTSTART:20160630T161500
DTEND:20160630T173000
DTSTAMP:20260510T045230Z
UID:2951472f30239b55865eed65f1e0966e3056c504129475f34af31f54
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Prof. Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol)\nThere is plent
 y of agreement about what we mean by ‘weather’\, some agreement about 
 ‘climate’\, and quite a lot of confusion about ‘climate simulations
 ’ – not about what they are\, but about what they mean. Statisticians 
 are very familiar with the underlying issues\, which centre on uncertainty
  and our attempts to define and quantify it.  I propose that climate simu
 lators represent expert opinions about future weather\, and should be trea
 ted accordingly.  This in turn requires that we expose the inherently pro
 babilistic nature of a climate simulator\, so that we can interpret it as 
 offering a set of bets on future weather outcomes.  I will assess current
  practice in climate science from this perspective.
LOCATION:CM04 http://plan.epfl.ch/?lang=fr&room=cm4
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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