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SUMMARY:"Kings" and Predictions
DTSTART:20090205T171500
DTSTAMP:20260407T102559Z
UID:97c9a286e80ff4cf49c2f39a58f5dfdb82b691b5eb56295937f31066
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Prof. Didier Sornette\nExtreme fluctuations or events are ofte
 n associated with power law statistics. Indeed\, it is a popular belief th
 at "wild randomness" (to use a term proposed by Mandelbrot) is deeply asso
 ciated with distributions with power law tails characterized by small expo
 nents. In other words\, power law tails are often seen as the epitome of e
 xtreme events. Here\, we document in several systems that there is life be
 yond power law tails: power laws can be superseded by "kings"\, monster ev
 ents that occur beyond the power law tail. Kings reveal hidden mechanisms 
 that are only transiently active and that amplify the normal power law flu
 ctuations. We will present evidence of the king phenomenon on the statisti
 cs of financial losses\, hydrodynamic turbulence\, material rupture\, eart
 hquakes\, epileptic seizures\, and cyber risks. The special status of king
 s open a new research program on their predictability\, based on the hypot
 hesis that they belong to a different class of their own and express speci
 fic mechanisms amplifying the normal dynamics via positive feedbacks. We c
 onclude with the potentials and state of the arts for the predictions of m
 aterial rupture\, earthquakes\, financial crashes and epileptic seizures.
LOCATION:GR C0 01
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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