BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Memento EPFL// BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:EESS talk on "On the potential predictability of vital details of climate change" DTSTART:20180320T121500 DTEND:20180320T131500 DTSTAMP:20260916T153518Z UID:1acaeed47fc71a1fa7dc6bca256cd00d5cdb6a6997a7102fbaf1c73e CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars DESCRIPTION:Dr Simone Fatichi\, Hydrology\, Institute of Environmental Eng ineering\, ETH Zurich\nAbstract:\nDecision makers and stakeholders are usu ally concerned about climate change projections at local spatial scales an d fine temporal resolutions. This contrasts with the reliability of climat e models\, which is typically higher at the global and regional scales\, T herefore\, there is a demand for advanced methodologies that offer the cap ability of transferring predictions of climate models and relative uncerta inty to scales commensurate with practical applications (e.g.\, few square kilometres and sub-daily scale). A stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator (AWE-GEN) and of a Bayesian metho dology to weight realizations from an ensemble of climate models is used t o generate local scale meteorological time series of plausible “futures ”.  The methodology is designed to partition three main sources of unce rtainty: uncertainty due to climate models (model epistemic uncertainty)\, anthropogenic forcings (scenario uncertainty)\, and internal climate vari ability (stochastic uncertainty). For air temperature\, the magnitude of t he different uncertainty sources is comparable for mid-of-the-century proj ections\, while scenario uncertainty dominates at large lead-times. The do minant source of uncertainty for changes in precipitation mean and extreme s is internal climate variability\, which leaves a limited room for uncert ainty reduction. However\, the inference is not necessarily discouraging b ecause the uncertainty in precipitation due to historic climate variabilit y is already covering a large fraction of the total uncertainty for the pr ojected future.\n\nShort biography:\nSimone Fatichi is Research Associate and Lecturer at the Institute of Environmental Engineering at ETH Zurich s ince 2011. He received his BSc and MSc (cum laude) in Earth and Environmen tal Engineering at the University of Firenze (Italy) and he owns an Intern ational PhD title joint between the T.U. Braunschweig (Germany) and Univer sity of Firenze (Italy). His areas of expertise are soil-water-plant inter actions\, biogeosciences\, hydrology\, and analysis of climate change effe cts. His research covers a variety of topics and techniques including dist ributed ecohydrologic modeling\, ecosystem modeling\, modeling of processe s of plant physiology and soil biogeochemistry\, methods of stochastic hyd rometeorology\, and downscaling techniques to study climate change impacts . Recent research efforts have been devoted to the understanding of global change and its implications on water and soil resources\, ecosystems\, an d the carbon cycle. He was recipient of the Torricelli award in 2014.\n  LOCATION:GR A3 32 https://plan.epfl.ch/?room==GR%20A3%2032 STATUS:CONFIRMED END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR