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SUMMARY:EESS Special event - talk on "An earth-scientist’s view of human
  population dynamics"
DTSTART:20180907T110000
DTEND:20180907T120000
DTSTAMP:20260404T015232Z
UID:dc5883887cf7b0a03ab09a91f62d537fdca32cfce7287ba9e05be5f2
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Dr Stephen Warren\, Professor\, Department of Atmospheric Scie
 nces\, and Department of Earth & Space Sciences\, University of Washington
 \, Seattle\, USA\n\nShort biography:\nDr Stephen Warren has been a profess
 or at the University of Washington since 1982.  His research interest is 
 the interaction of solar radiation with snow\, clouds\, and sea ice\, and 
 their role in climate.  He is a Fellow of AMS\, AAAS\, and AGU. He has 13
 5 publications\, which have been cited about 11\,000 times. He has won two
  awards for excellence in teaching.  His interest in population developed
  from teaching a course on climate change.\nAbstract:\nHistorical examples
  of demographic change\, in China\, Italy\, Nigeria\, Utah\, the Philippin
 es\, and elsewhere\, together with simple mathematics and biological princ
 iples\, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by foo
 d supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nati
 ons population projections are based on a logical fallacy in that they ass
 ume\, in spite of the absence of necessary negative feedbacks\, that all n
 ations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter
  remain at that level. The benign projections that have resulted from this
  assumption may have hindered efforts to make availability of birth-contro
 l a priority in development-aid.\n \nEducation of women and provision of 
 contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility\, but many gro
 ups\, including some that are well-educated\, maintain high fertility. Sma
 ll groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertilit
 y groups\, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The glob
 al average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate
  is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed 
 births\, the population continues to grow because of immigration.\n \nPro
 ducing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stabl
 e populations\, because their populations are limited by resources or pred
 ation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view t
 he growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but ra
 ther of excess food. Even if the fertility rate is maintained far in exces
 s of 2\, the population cannot grow if food is limiting\; instead the addi
 tional babies will starve. Without the agricultural advances of the 20th c
 entury\, world population could not have grown as it did from 1.7 billion 
 in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000.\n \nThe food supply may be enhanced in the 
 future by genetic engineering and other innovations\, but it may be limite
 d by water shortage\, climate change\, pollution\, and energy shortage. Th
 e efficiency of agriculture may be diminished by breakdown of social infra
 structure.\n 
LOCATION:GR A3 32 https://plan.epfl.ch/?room==GR%20A3%2032
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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