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SUMMARY:The coincidence of sectoral slowdowns in the UK:  Comparing transm
 ission probabilities and economic linkages
DTSTART:20200529T103000
DTEND:20200529T120000
DTSTAMP:20260916T044107Z
UID:19055b689dc627064b3c420c198afb1cfdc3cc77e8f2d4852e4bab48
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Robin LUMSDAINE\, American University Washington DC\nThis pape
 r studies the transmission of sectoral shocks across broad macroeconomic s
 ectors in the UK\, using data from the Bank of England's Flow of Funds sta
 tistics. By combining two different approaches to quantify the spread of s
 hocks\, we are able to assess whether a greater statistical likelihood of 
 shock transmission across sectors corresponds to greater actual economic l
 inkages. A causal interpretation is possible via an epidemiological model 
 estimated with Bayesian techniques using both network data on assets and l
 iability connections between sectors as well as a panel data set on sector
 al net worth growth. The combination of both approaches reveals a role as 
 shock absorber of the Monetary Financial Institutions sector\, and helps d
 istinguish between more and less likely channels of shock transmission. Th
 e discrepancies between network data and the actual occurrences of spillov
 ers highlight the contribution of the proposed methodology.  The approach
  can therefore be particularly valuable to policymakers in a systemic risk
  mitigation context.\nThis paper studies the transmission of sectoral shoc
 ks across broad macroeconomic sectors in the UK\, using data from the Bank
  of England's Flow of Funds statistics. By combining two different approac
 hes to quantify the spread of shocks\, we are able to assess whether a gre
 ater statistical likelihood of shock transmission across sectors correspon
 ds to greater actual economic linkages. A causal interpretation is possibl
 e via an epidemiological model estimated with Bayesian techniques using bo
 th network data on assets and liability connections between sectors as wel
 l as a panel data set on sectoral net worth growth. The combination of bot
 h approaches reveals a role as shock absorber of the Monetary Financial In
 stitutions sector\, and helps distinguish between more and less likely cha
 nnels of shock transmission. The discrepancies between network data and th
 e actual occurrences of spillovers highlight the contribution of the propo
 sed methodology.  The approach can therefore be particularly valuable to 
 policymakers in a systemic risk mitigation context.\n 
LOCATION:UNIL\, Extranef\, room 126 https://planete.unil.ch/plan/?local=EX
 T-126
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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