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SUMMARY:ENAC Seminar Series by Dr M. Kreitmair
DTSTART:20190716T130000
DTEND:20190716T140000
DTSTAMP:20260505T080924Z
UID:9f56aedf157b8776a9b1bf2fe9a122533d86fa11c53b6d5ae2fb1928
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Dr Monika Kreitmair\n13:00 – 14:00 – Dr Monika Kreitmair\n
 Postdoctoral Research Associate\, Alan Turing Institute\, University of Ca
 mbridge\, UK\n\nUncertainty quantification in hydrokinetic energy extracti
 on \n\nUncertainty is ubiquitous in the modelling of the natural world\, w
 ith sources of uncertainty ranging from measurement errors\, model simplif
 ications\, and numerical discretisation error. It is important to account 
 for input parameter uncertainty when making model predictions as this can 
 impact the mean values predicted\, standard deviation\, and associated opt
 imisation strategies. In shallow flow modelling\, a parameter with signifi
 cant uncertainty is the bed roughness coefficient which accounts for the f
 rictional interaction between channel beds and the flow past it.\n\nThis u
 ncertainty\, in turn\, propagates through to velocity profiles and subsequ
 ent metrics\, such as power predictions from hydrokinetic energy models an
 d water elevation in urban flooding models. In this talk\, we will explore
  two methods for the propagation of bed roughness coefficient uncertainty 
 in models of tidal stream energy extraction. The first method is a perturb
 ative approach which may be applied to analytic models\, and the second is
  a numerical probability density distribution (pdf) transfer approach\, wh
 ereby a given pdf in the uncertain parameter is transferred through a nume
 rically generated power surface to produce the corresponding pdf in the ou
 tput metric\, i.e. power.\n\nThese methods allow the calculation of expect
 ed power and its standard deviation and enable optimisation of tidal turbi
 ne deployment under uncertainty. The methods have ready application in oth
 er free surface flow problems such as river flow routing and urban and coa
 stal flooding\, where they may be used to account for uncertain terrain an
 d terrain cover.\n 
LOCATION:CM 1 4 https://plan.epfl.ch/?room==CM%201%204
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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