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SUMMARY:The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
DTSTART:20200306T103000
DTEND:20200306T120000
DTSTAMP:20260430T004451Z
UID:9b5b8b6c1db33c76617dad437a98d9d0d3e65d2e77dbac2bdb12b5c8
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Tarek A. HASSAN\, Boston University\nUsing tools from computat
 ional linguistics\, we propose a text-based method for isolating first and
  second moment exposures to shocks stemming from specific events at the fi
 rm level. Applying this method\, we construct new measures of the impact o
 f Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the pr
 oportion of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on the cost
 s\, benefits\, and risks associated with the UK's decision to leave the EU
 . We identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are
  most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate effects of the diff
 erent types of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that the im
 pact of Brexit-related uncertainty extends far beyond British or even Euro
 pean firms\; US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty
  lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have also reduced h
 iring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment
 )\, we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct
  effects from Brexit (the first moment) when it comes to pass. Most promin
 ently\, firms expect difficulties from regulatory divergence\, reduced lab
 or mobility\, limited trade access\, and the costs of post-Brexit operatio
 nal adjustments. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory\, thi
 s negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not
  yet significantly affected firm actions.
LOCATION:UNIL\, Extranef\, room 126
STATUS:CANCELLED
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