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SUMMARY:Describing the relationship between a weather event and climate ch
 ange
DTSTART:20201002T160000
DTEND:20201002T173000
DTSTAMP:20260414T072343Z
UID:024863d47e9a39132d212649ef0f09e1f9f72f30637460e1074b50f4
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Aurélien Ribes\, CNRM\n\nDescribing the relationship between 
 a weather event and climate change -- a science usually termed event attri
 bution -- involves quantifying the extent to which human influence has aff
 ected the frequency or the strength of an observed event. First\, I will d
 escribe how this topic has emerged and developed over the last 20 years\, 
 and provide some background on climate science.\nThen I will show how even
 t attribution can be implemented through the application of non-stationary
  statistics to simulations performed by climate models over the 1850-2100 
 period -- those models underlying the IPCC assessment reports. As many suc
 h physical models are being used\, we develop a technique for providing a 
 multi-model synthesis\, in which model uncertainty is treated consistently
  with other analysis.\nLastly\, I describe how model estimates can be comb
 ined with historical observations to provide a single diagnosis accounting
  for all sources of information.\nThe method will be presented for the Nor
 mal distribution\, with application to the 2003 European Heat Wave\, and f
 or Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV)\, with application to the 
 July 2019 French Heat Wave.
LOCATION:zoom https://epfl.zoom.us/j/82232755541
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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