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SUMMARY:High-resolution Bayesian mapping of landslide hazard with unobserv
 ed trigger event
DTSTART:20210430T151500
DTEND:20210430T163000
DTSTAMP:20260924T080114Z
UID:5e5c95ec94d846ee774c2064ef83a9fb34fc8b849bd990fb2d52f761
CATEGORIES:Conferences - Seminars
DESCRIPTION:Raphael Huser\, Kaust\nStatistical models for landslide hazard
  enable mapping of risk factors and landslide occurrence intensity by usin
 g geomorphological covariates available at high spatial resolution. Howeve
 r\, the spatial distribution of the triggering event (e.g.\, precipitation
  or earthquakes) is often not directly observed.\n\nIn this paper\, we dev
 elop Bayesian spatial hierarchical models for point patterns of landslide 
 occurrences using different types of log-Gaussian Cox processes. Starting 
 from a competitive baseline model that captures the unobserved precipitati
 on trigger through a spatial random effect at slope unit resolution\, we e
 xplore novel complex model structures that take clusters of events arising
  at small spatial scales into account\, as well as nonlinear or spatially-
 varying covariate effects.\nFor a 2009 event of around 4000 precipitation-
 triggered landslides in Sicily\, Italy\, we show how to fit our proposed m
 odels efficiently using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)
 \, and rigorously compare the performance of our models both from a statis
 tical and applied perspective. In this context\, we argue that model compa
 rison should not be based on a single criterion\, and that different model
 s of various complexity may provide insights into complementary aspects of
  the same applied problem.\nIn our application\, our models are found to h
 ave mostly the same spatial predictive performance\, implying that key to 
 successful prediction is the inclusion of a slope-unit resolved random eff
 ect capturing the precipitation trigger. Interestingly\, a parsimonious fo
 rmulation of space-varying slope effects reflects a physical interpretatio
 n of the precipitation trigger: in subareas with weak trigger\, the slope 
 steepness is shown to be mostly irrelevant.\n\nJoint work with Thomas Opit
 z\, Haakon Bakka\, and Luigi Lombardo.\n 
LOCATION:https://epfl.zoom.us/j/88099177313
STATUS:CONFIRMED
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