Conferences - Seminars
A Macroeconomic Model with Financially Constrained Producers and Intermediaries
By Stijn VAN NIEUWERBURGH (NYU Stern)
We propose a model that can simultaneously capture the sharp and persistent drop in macro-economic aggregates and the sharp change in credit spreads observed in the U.S. during the Great Recession. We use the model to evaluate the quantitative effects of macro-prudential policy. The model features borrower-entrepreneurs who produce output financed with long-term debt issued by financial intermediaries and their own equity. Intermediaries fund these loans combining deposits and their own equity. Savers provide funding to banks and to the government. Both entrepreneurs and intermediaries make optimal default decisions. The government issues debt to finance budget defficits and to pay for bank bailouts. Intermediaries are subject to a regulatory capital constraint. Financial recessions, triggered by low aggregate and dispersed idiosyncratic productivity shocks result in financial crises with elevated loan defaults and occasional intermediary insolvencies. Output, balance sheet, and price reactions are substantially more severe and persistent than in non-financial recession. Policies that limit intermediary leverage redistribute wealth from producers to intermediaries and savers. The benefits of lower intermediary leverage for financial and macro-economic stability are offset by the costs from more constrained firms who produce less output.
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