The Value of Compliance Carbon Offsets in Cap-and-Trade Markets

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Event details

Date 03.03.2026
Hour 12:1513:15
Speaker Federica Zeni - SFI@EPFL
Location
UNIL, Extranef, room 126
Category Conferences - Seminars
Event Language English

We study compliance carbon offsets in cap-and-trade markets. We develop a model predicting that firms sort into offset use by carbon productivity: highly productive firms rely solely on allowances, while less productive firms use offsets because they trade at a discount but carry invalidation risk. Using administrative data from California's cap-and-trade program, we find strong empirical support for these predictions. Structural estimation suggests that roughly one-third of compliance offsets fail to reduce emissions, generating about 2 percent uncounted emissions. Nevertheless, offsets can increase efficiency relative to an equivalent tightening of the emissions cap under certain conditions.