EESS talk on "Climate change threatens global cropland suitability"

The increasing impacts of climate change are causing serious challenges for agricultural productivity and global food security. A key concern is how changing climate conditions, such as precipitation and temperature, might influence the suitability of croplands and agricultural systems, with significant consequences for future food production and related policies. In this study, by establishing relations between soil and climate factors and crop yield, we adopt a data-driven model to evaluate future climate-driven changes on suitability of twelve major crops produced worldwide. We consider the IPCC’s four Global Warming Levels (GWLs +1.5, +2, +3, +4°C) to assess the future potential shifts in global cropland suitability relative to the baseline period of 1985-2014. Our results feature an overall future decrease in cropland suitability around low-mid latitudes, and a potential increase for certain crops around mid-high latitudes. In particular, more than 75% of the crops that are currently harvested in semi-arid and tropical areas will become less suitable in the future, with increasing severity for higher GWLs, if no adaptation strategies will be implemented. On the contrary, staple crops such as barley, maize and wheat will become more suitable at higher latitudes, especially between the current humid continental and subarctic climate zones. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate-soil interactions into crop adaptation planning to better anticipate regional vulnerabilities and guide sustainable agricultural development.
 

Francesca Bassani is a postdoctoral researcher at the Laboratory of Catchment Hydrology and Geomorphology (CHANGE Lab, advisor: Sara Bonetti) at EPFL Valais Wallis, where she contributes to the development of mathematical frameworks for the assessment of soil and water sustainability under climate change. She obtained her PhD in Civil and Environmental Engineering (2023) and MSc in Civil Engineering (2018), with major in Hydrology and Hydraulics, from the Polytechnic University of Turin, Italy.