Scooped! Estimating Rewards for Priority in Science
Event details
| Date | 12.10.2020 |
| Hour | 17:00 |
| Speaker | Ryan Hill (MIT / Northwestern Kellogg) |
| Location |
Zoom
|
| Category | Conferences - Seminars |
Ryan Hill (MIT / Northwestern Kellogg)
"Scooped! Estimating Rewards for Priority in Science"
Discussant: Matt Marx (Boston University - Questrom School of Business)
Abstract
The scientific community assigns credit or “priority” to individuals who publish an important discovery first. We examine the impact of losing a priority race (colloquially known as getting “scooped”) on subsequent publication and career outcomes. To do so, we take advantage of data from structural biology where the nature of the scientific process together with the Protein Data Bank — a repository of standardized research discoveries — enables us to identify priority races and their outcomes. We find that race winners receive more attention than losers, but that these contests are not winner-take-all. Scooped teams are 2.5 percent less likely to publish, are 18 percent less likely to appear in a top-10 journal, and receive 28 percent fewer citations. As a share of total citations, we estimate that scooped papers receive a credit share of 42 percent. This is larger than the theoretical benchmark of zero percent suggested by classic models of innovation races. We conduct a survey of structural biologists which suggests that active scientists are more pessimistic about the cost of getting scooped than can be justified by the data. Much of the citation effect can be explained by journal placement, suggesting editors and reviewers are key arbiters of academic priority. Getting scooped has only modest effects on academic careers. Finally, we present a simple model of statistical discrimination in academic attention to explain how the priority reward system reinforces inequality in science, and document empirical evidence consistent with our model. On the whole, these estimates inform both theoretical models of innovation races and suggest opportunities to re-evaluate the
policies and institutions that affect credit allocation in science.
EPFL Virtual Innovation Seminar
EVIS is a bi-weekly virtual seminar series focusing on Science, Technology and Innovation topics studied through the lens of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Strategy and Finance.
"Scooped! Estimating Rewards for Priority in Science"
Discussant: Matt Marx (Boston University - Questrom School of Business)
Abstract
The scientific community assigns credit or “priority” to individuals who publish an important discovery first. We examine the impact of losing a priority race (colloquially known as getting “scooped”) on subsequent publication and career outcomes. To do so, we take advantage of data from structural biology where the nature of the scientific process together with the Protein Data Bank — a repository of standardized research discoveries — enables us to identify priority races and their outcomes. We find that race winners receive more attention than losers, but that these contests are not winner-take-all. Scooped teams are 2.5 percent less likely to publish, are 18 percent less likely to appear in a top-10 journal, and receive 28 percent fewer citations. As a share of total citations, we estimate that scooped papers receive a credit share of 42 percent. This is larger than the theoretical benchmark of zero percent suggested by classic models of innovation races. We conduct a survey of structural biologists which suggests that active scientists are more pessimistic about the cost of getting scooped than can be justified by the data. Much of the citation effect can be explained by journal placement, suggesting editors and reviewers are key arbiters of academic priority. Getting scooped has only modest effects on academic careers. Finally, we present a simple model of statistical discrimination in academic attention to explain how the priority reward system reinforces inequality in science, and document empirical evidence consistent with our model. On the whole, these estimates inform both theoretical models of innovation races and suggest opportunities to re-evaluate the
policies and institutions that affect credit allocation in science.
EPFL Virtual Innovation Seminar
EVIS is a bi-weekly virtual seminar series focusing on Science, Technology and Innovation topics studied through the lens of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Strategy and Finance.
Practical information
- General public
- Free