MechE Seminar: Embracing Uncertainties in Systems Modeling to Unlock the Energy Transition

Thumbnail

Event details

Date 11.02.2025
Hour 15:1516:15
Speaker Dr. Stefano Moret, Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich
Location Online
Category Conferences - Seminars
Event Language English
Abstract: The energy transition is put at stake by unprecedented uncertainties in energy prices, technological developments, geopolitics, and social acceptance. Due to fundamental methodological, computational, and data challenges, this uncertainty is at best rarely considered in energy planning models. This neglect increases the risk of missing our urgent climate targets.

In this seminar, we show how these barriers can be overcome to enable a systematic consideration of uncertainty in energy planning. We first introduce a robust optimization framework that can consider hundreds of sources of uncertainties typically found in energy models. Then, we demonstrate computational breakthroughs in existing uncertainty quantification methods by exploiting the properties of convex optimization problems. Finally, we show how machine learning can help streamline the complex outputs of uncertainty studies into interpretable options for decision-makers. Applications to a new energy system model, EnergyScope, highlight the impact of these developments on real-world case studies. The presented findings unlock new exciting frontiers, such as factoring in uncertainties in large-scale models and in multi-stage planning processes, and the potential to narrow the gap between quantitative models and real-world decision-making for a faster energy transition.

References:
[1] S. Moret, F. Babonneau, M. Bierlaire, and F. Maréchal, “Decision support for strategic energy planning: A robust optimization framework,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 280, no. 2, pp. 539–554, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.015.
[2] M. Borasio and S. Moret . Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: a novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2022. Vol. 153, p. 111730. DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111730
[3] F. Baader, S. Moret , W. Wiesemann, I. Staffell and A. Bardow. Streamlining Energy Transition Scenarios to Key Policy Decisions. Pre-print: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.06625



Biography: Stefano Moret is a Principal investigator, Group Leader and Lecturer at ETH Zurich, where his research is funded by an Ambizione Grant awarded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). His research interests are in energy systems modeling and the consideration of uncertainty in energy planning and strategic decision-making. Stefano has an Industrial and Mechanical Engineering background from the University of Padova (Italy) and holds a PhD in Energy from EPFL. Before joining ETH Zurich, he was a SNSF Early Postdoc Mobility Fellow and Research Associate at Imperial College London.

Practical information

  • General public
  • Free

Tags

MechE Seminar: Embracing Uncertainties in Systems Modeling to Unlock the Energy Transition

Share