Quasi-dynamic o-d flow estimation from traffic counts: results and research prospects
Event details
| Date | 27.03.2015 |
| Hour | 12:15 › 13:15 |
| Speaker |
Prof. Dr Vittorio Marzano, assistant professor, University of Napoli, Italy Prof. Dr Andrea Papola, associate professor, University of Napoli, Italy |
| Location | |
| Category | Conferences - Seminars |
The seminar reports on research results and prospects on origin-destination (o-d) flows estimation based on traffic counts.
Acknowledging that a satisfactory OD flow updating (regardless of the quality of the prior estimate) can be obtained generally only when the ratio between the number of equations (i.e. independent observed link flows) and the number of unknowns (i.e. OD flows) is close to one, a quasi-dynamic GLS o-d flow estimator from traffic count is presented, under the assumption that o-d shares are constant across a reference period, whilst total flows leaving each origin vary for each sub-period within the reference period. The advantage of this approach over conventional within-day dynamic estimators is that of reducing drastically the number of unknowns given the same set of observed time-varying traffic counts. The realism of the quasi-dynamic assumption, and the theoretical and operational properties of the proposed QD-GLS estimator are discussed and tested on the real test site of A4-A23 motorways in North-Eastern Italy.
Two concerned research prospects are discussed also: the former is the formulation of non-linear quasi-dynamic Kalman filters (QD-KF), embedding diverse specifications of the state variables and of the corresponding transition and measurement equations, with promising results on synthetic networks. The latter deals with a different approach for balancing unknowns and equations, that is proposing an optimal joint approach for zoning and o-d flow estimation/updating, i.e. achieving an effective trade-off between approximation in network loading pattern and effectiveness in o-d flow estimation.
Bios :
Vittorio Marzano is assistant professor at the University of Napoli, visiting researcher at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), external collaborator of the SUTD-I3 innovation centre and affiliate with the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART-MIT) and the ITS lab at MIT Boston. He holds a PhD in Transport Engineering from the University of Napoli (2006), a MPhil in Transport systems planning and management (2003) and an executive course in Supply chain management and distributive logistics from the Business School of the Politecnico di Milano (2010). His research interests cover various topics of transport engineering: freight modelling, discrete choice modelling, o-d flow estimation/updating, network sensors location, traffic assignment, ITS. He is referee for top international journals and peer-reviewed projects. He is involved in teaching activity for undergraduate and postgraduate courses and masters in Italy and abroad. He has an extensive track record of management of international research projects, and he has also joined more than 20 national/international research projects in quality of senior researcher. He has also a considerable consultancy experience in the sectors of freight and logistics, public transport, high-speed railways, feasibility studies of infrastructures and transport services in Italy and abroad.
Andrea Papola is associate professor of Methods and applications for transport system engineering at the University of Napoli “Federico II”. He holds a Ph.D. in Transport Engineering from the University of Napoli, past positions include a research fellowship at the National Research Council (1998-2001). His research interests, developed in more than 20 years of experience, include models and methods for simulating passenger and freight transport systems, advanced discrete choice models (especially for route choice), methods for effective o-d matrix estimation/updating, survey design and model estimation on the basis of RP/SP data. He has published 18 top journal papers, 7 chapters in international books and more than 40 conference proceedings, with an h-index of 7 and around 200 citations. He is member of the Editorial Advisory Board of Transportation Research Part B and was former member of the scientific committee of the European Transport Conference. He has a proven track record of undergraduate and postgraduate taught courses in national and international contexts. He has been invited to give presentations in several national and international universities. He was principal investigator in several EU and Italian funded projects. He has been in charge of implementing several decision support systems related to both passenger and freight transport systems, both at a national and regional level. He also carried out several feasibility studies for new infrastructures and services appraisal.
Acknowledging that a satisfactory OD flow updating (regardless of the quality of the prior estimate) can be obtained generally only when the ratio between the number of equations (i.e. independent observed link flows) and the number of unknowns (i.e. OD flows) is close to one, a quasi-dynamic GLS o-d flow estimator from traffic count is presented, under the assumption that o-d shares are constant across a reference period, whilst total flows leaving each origin vary for each sub-period within the reference period. The advantage of this approach over conventional within-day dynamic estimators is that of reducing drastically the number of unknowns given the same set of observed time-varying traffic counts. The realism of the quasi-dynamic assumption, and the theoretical and operational properties of the proposed QD-GLS estimator are discussed and tested on the real test site of A4-A23 motorways in North-Eastern Italy.
Two concerned research prospects are discussed also: the former is the formulation of non-linear quasi-dynamic Kalman filters (QD-KF), embedding diverse specifications of the state variables and of the corresponding transition and measurement equations, with promising results on synthetic networks. The latter deals with a different approach for balancing unknowns and equations, that is proposing an optimal joint approach for zoning and o-d flow estimation/updating, i.e. achieving an effective trade-off between approximation in network loading pattern and effectiveness in o-d flow estimation.
Bios :
Vittorio Marzano is assistant professor at the University of Napoli, visiting researcher at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), external collaborator of the SUTD-I3 innovation centre and affiliate with the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART-MIT) and the ITS lab at MIT Boston. He holds a PhD in Transport Engineering from the University of Napoli (2006), a MPhil in Transport systems planning and management (2003) and an executive course in Supply chain management and distributive logistics from the Business School of the Politecnico di Milano (2010). His research interests cover various topics of transport engineering: freight modelling, discrete choice modelling, o-d flow estimation/updating, network sensors location, traffic assignment, ITS. He is referee for top international journals and peer-reviewed projects. He is involved in teaching activity for undergraduate and postgraduate courses and masters in Italy and abroad. He has an extensive track record of management of international research projects, and he has also joined more than 20 national/international research projects in quality of senior researcher. He has also a considerable consultancy experience in the sectors of freight and logistics, public transport, high-speed railways, feasibility studies of infrastructures and transport services in Italy and abroad.
Andrea Papola is associate professor of Methods and applications for transport system engineering at the University of Napoli “Federico II”. He holds a Ph.D. in Transport Engineering from the University of Napoli, past positions include a research fellowship at the National Research Council (1998-2001). His research interests, developed in more than 20 years of experience, include models and methods for simulating passenger and freight transport systems, advanced discrete choice models (especially for route choice), methods for effective o-d matrix estimation/updating, survey design and model estimation on the basis of RP/SP data. He has published 18 top journal papers, 7 chapters in international books and more than 40 conference proceedings, with an h-index of 7 and around 200 citations. He is member of the Editorial Advisory Board of Transportation Research Part B and was former member of the scientific committee of the European Transport Conference. He has a proven track record of undergraduate and postgraduate taught courses in national and international contexts. He has been invited to give presentations in several national and international universities. He was principal investigator in several EU and Italian funded projects. He has been in charge of implementing several decision support systems related to both passenger and freight transport systems, both at a national and regional level. He also carried out several feasibility studies for new infrastructures and services appraisal.
Practical information
- General public
- Free
Organizer
- Prof. Dr Nikolas Geroliminis & Katrin Beyer
Contact
- Nikolas Geroliminis