A statistician’s viewpoint on weather, climate, and climate simulations
Event details
| Date | 30.06.2016 |
| Hour | 16:15 › 17:30 |
| Speaker | Prof. Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol) |
| Location | |
| Category | Conferences - Seminars |
There is plenty of agreement about what we mean by ‘weather’, some agreement about ‘climate’, and quite a lot of confusion about ‘climate simulations’ – not about what they are, but about what they mean. Statisticians are very familiar with the underlying issues, which centre on uncertainty and our attempts to define and quantify it. I propose that climate simulators represent expert opinions about future weather, and should be treated accordingly. This in turn requires that we expose the inherently probabilistic nature of a climate simulator, so that we can interpret it as offering a set of bets on future weather outcomes. I will assess current practice in climate science from this perspective.
Practical information
- General public
- Free
Organizer
- Clément Hongler