Translation of Ensemble Weather Forecasts into Probabilistic Aviation Impact Predictions
Event details
| Date | 18.04.2011 |
| Hour | 16:15 |
| Speaker | Prof. Matthias STEINER, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder University (USA) |
| Location |
GR B3 30
|
| Category | Conferences - Seminars |
Weather conditions can seriously impact aircraft operations which places great importance on how weather-related information is collected managed disseminated and utilized in the air traffic management decision-making process. The primary role of weather information is to provide guidance where and when aircraft may fly safely. Thus weather forecasts have to be translated into information that is directly relevant to the aviation users and service providers. The uncertainty of weather forecasts has to be accounted for as well in the risk assessment and decision-making process.
Today's trend in probabilistic weather forecasting is toward utilizing ensemble prediction systems. In the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) ensemble-based weather forecasting will be a common practice. Therefore this presentation explores a novel approach of using high-resolution ensemble-based numerical weather prediction model data for weather-related probabilistic aviation impact forecasting. The concept represents a paradigm shift from "creating ensembles of weather information" (e.g. maps of predicted weather hazard intensity) to "developing ensembles of aviation-relevant information" (maps of potential throughput as measured by the available flow capacity ratio) which entails a translation of weather forecasts into predictions of reduced airspace capacity. The proof-of-concept is exemplified by focusing on convective storms; however in principal the approach may be applicable to other aviation hazards like turbulence icing or ceiling and visibility. The concept is most pertinent to strategic en route traffic flow management but it also applies to terminal area applications. A probabilistic approach is appropriate for strategic planning horizons for which deterministic weather forecasts are significantly less accurate and an ensemble of forecasts may provide guidance about the weather (and impact) uncertainty.
Links
Practical information
- General public
- Free
Contact
- Prof. Marc Parlange, EFLUM